In a world that is continuously evolving, our conscience serves as a guiding light, and it's essential to listen to our inner voice as we navigate the uncharted territory of AI. Happiness, after all, is what we are all striving for, and the advancements in AI have the potential to create a happier, more fulfilling future for all.

Just like life, the progression of AI is filled with unexpected events and bittersweet moments. We cannot always time everything perfectly, but as long as we can adapt and continue to move forward, we are on the right track. The recent breakthroughs in AI, such as ChatGPT by OpenAI, are prime examples of the incredible progress we have made, and yet, there is still so much more to discover.

If you are working in the service economy you would have to be fighting hard to not see the headlines that AI is coming for your job soon. It’s been plastered all over the internet and it sure is intimidating. Publications like Forbes1 and CNBC2 are telling you you’ll be losing your job all the while there are running lists of tech layoffs3 while this rolling recession continues.

Embracing this journey requires constant self-improvement and the willingness to learn. As we continue to develop AI technology, we must also strive to improve our own outlook, personality, goals, and maturity. We have a unique opportunity to put ourselves through a progression of self that many in history will not have a chance for, and it's vital that we seize this opportunity with open arms.

The future of AI is filled with both promise and uncertainty, but it's up to us to face these challenges head-on and learn from them. It may take time to muster up the confidence and ability to turn our thoughts into actual decisions, but once we do, the rewards will be well worth the effort.

Reinventing yourself is not easy but if it were it would not be so rewarding. Alas please do not forget, this is not the first time in history new technologies came for your job. Farming and agriculture4 made up the super majority of work for over 50 years in America. The rise of new techniques and technologies which had the ability to seem as mind blowing, if not more impressive than artificial intelligence, came their way.

The logistical disruption planes, trains, and automobiles had on the broader economies must have felt similar if not more impactful. If you take a moment to linger, the disruption of 1900-19505 seems much more incredible than 1970 - 20206. I mean come on, we had air conditioning in 1902, what else did you need?!

The point here is the disruption will likely be much slower than the ‘end of times’ article you are reading on today’s digital newsstand. The initial rush to adopt this new technology will pan out for some businesses and not for others. You will likely see major improvements in software and your experiences using them. 

For example, who doesn’t want, “Netflix as a prompt” where you can ask to watch an incredibly tailored movie? “Netflix please show me a dystopian future movie set on a goldilocks planet starring Kevin Bacon and myself, make it 1 hour and 45 minutes long because I have a rocket to catch.”

My question back would be what kind of true disruption is this? It’s a service economy disruption in the content and media industry. You would then need to ask yourself, well, what kind of device are they watching this content on? Has there been a new piece of hardware invented? Are they watching it on an Oculus VR? How many more Oculus VR competitors are there now? Have there been 50,000 new high tech jobs created because of that? Is it a wearable watch that pulls it up on a hologram? Whoa, how many companies do that? Are there another 200,000 jobs there?

These are all questions we do not know the exact answer to. What we do know is historically old jobs get replaced with new jobs.

If you look at history, pandemic aside, with all the technological disruption that has happened, the highest sustained rate of unemployment was in 19337 and it was the Great Depression. What caused this? A stock market crash, collapse of world trade, government politics, and bank failures and panics.

So the short answer is, no. Even though sliced bread was invented in 1930, technology didn’t come for your job.

New inventions and technologies are not coming for you, they are creating an opportunity for you to go create a new one.

As we stand at the precipice of a new era in artificial intelligence, let us boldly step forward into the unknown, eager to learn, grow, and find happiness in the ever-changing landscape of AI. Together, we can forge a brighter, more fulfilling future for all – one that is fueled by the limitless potential of AI and the indomitable spirit of human innovation.

I cannot help but be reminded of this history as governments around the world are scrambling yet again to instill confidence across markets to stave off what they know is possible once more.

The question everyone is asking today is: how deep does the contagion go? How have executives across the banks managed their risks to consistently fulfill the public markets' never-ending need to beat earnings? How risky did they get this time? Are they forced to take more risk because everyone else is doing it? Are there options where they don't have to take these risks?

The list of questions goes on and on.

There are differences this time. We did not have mass adoption of Bitcoin or DeFi in 2009. Believe it or not, only 71% of Americans were on the internet in 2009 compared to 92% today. Currently, over 40 million people own cryptocurrency in the US alone. Though cryptocurrencies are not a complete opt-out yet, I do see this contagion pushing more people towards Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market.

I anticipate the development of tools specifically targeted at simplifying banking. Self-custodial credit cards, self-custodial banking accounts. It’s all coming.

—

It’s always fun to go back and read scribbles from years ago. I’m not sure where I was going with all of this entirely, but something I’m starting to see behind the scenes is interest from projects that would otherwise be 99% decentralized starting to understand the importance of being exposed to the entire customer journey when it comes to fiat on-ramps. I do not think “fiat on-ramp” is a pure business in and of itself. It the bank account that matter. Imagine Uniswap owning a community bank run as a Wyoming DAO with FDIC insurance and a never ending source of fiat from W-2 employees and business owners. #endrant

What you have control over is your ability to navigate this difficulty and create an environment in which the relative difficulty to you goes down.

The same principle applies to accomplishing work. Everyday we are all dealing with a number of ever increasing demands and there is only so much gas in our mental fortitude gas tank. Then what happens when the inevitable road block comes. The passing of someone close, an injury, an unexpected financial expense. Then you start tapping into the reserve tanks and Running On Empty by Jackson Browne is playing in the background.

If you have not answered it already, the answer to are the ever ‘never’ roadblocks is no. Preparing for roadblocks is part of preparing in general.

The only thing you need to be prepared and to handle what is in front of you is energy and will. That is what fills the gas tank. With a full tank of energy and will you are capable of accomplishing anything you put your mind to. It is really that simple.

How each of us manifests energy and will is different however we are all human and the humans before have blazed a trail for us. I cannot speak to every personality type but for those of you teetering more toward introversion may recognize some of the following:

“You time” routine. ‘You time’ activities are truly endless, it can be anything, but it’s 100% a necessity to fill the gas tank. Whatever your activity may be, you need to communicate this clearly with the people around you and commit to a routine and also commit to clearly defined amounts. If you have family or other outsized obligations these time periods will naturally be less, however, if defined well they can have the same effect. Staying in motion can actually be an efficiency booster and you may find yourself getting more done even though your life is busier than ever. Sometimes 15-20 minutes can do the trick.

Whether it is surfing, reading, video games, etc, these moments are vital. Do not waste them on anything other than you, stay far away from doom scrolling, and get a full tank each time they happen.

Status directly increases when you accomplish something and then the speed in which it increases is directly correlated to the age in which you accomplish it. Age is pretty straight forward but the accomplishment axis is wildly diverse. The dotted line is the worthiness of the accomplishment. A potential next version of this would then add up the status to achieve some sort of summation.

For the most part this graph sucks. Why does it suck? Because the interpretation of what an accomplishment is in our world is entirely broken.

However there is a small glimpse of a lesson in there. When you first think about an accomplishment in your mind, what does it look like?

When you read Status1, Status2, Status3, were you day-dreaming about money and materials or was it family and experiences? Both are okay. The important part is self-actualizing what part of the journey you are on, understanding what is important to you, and then working back to try and figure out why it is so important.

Simply being aware of this will help you unpack the WHY behind your actions. It will soften the edge with any outcome anxiety.

You will never stop worrying and that is okay! Get comfort and reframe a constant analyzation and worry as protection and provision. Worry is a drive, it pushes you further. The goal is to understand it better and take action faster. If something keeps running circles in your mind go write it down to forget it or solve it now.

I have always said we all need to embrace every age. Never stop embracing where you are. As long as you wake up everyday and contribute, you deserve to be happy. Be grateful for what you have and never stop challenging and pushing.

Keep living vicariously through yourself.

Watching the OneWeb mission last night on Twitter I could not help but think Elon was doing the same thing. Except he was watching one of his start-ups deliver payload to space (SpaceX) while being streamed through his other start-up (Twitter).

Like any other normal person, I was then distracted from the entertainment and thrust into an internal war about sacrifice.

Success is subjective, but for the sake of this conversation let us consider you are attempting to build something new from scratch. You have family, friends, fun, fitness, and work. There will be a direct correlation between the amount of time you sacrifice with one of the F’s and your ability to have success in the venture you seek. If you get smart quick, you can combine some of the F’s at certain times but it is not easy and can get tricky. You cannot have a family and friends all coming together to surf or golf every weekend. You should try though!

My point is the F’s will be sacrificed to a degree in order to achieve outsized success. In my opinion, the only way passed is through. You have complete control and autonomy over which F’s get tailored down.

The priority I have noticed the most in founders is:

1. Family

2. Work

3. Friends

4. Fun

5. Fitness

My point here is many times work will find its way to the pole position. When this happens, and it will happen, and if you have a speck of EQ, you can feel it. These moments are completely flow state and may last a couple hours or months at a time.

You need to be prepared for these. Quality family and friends will understand your drive. They know the path you are on. It is your responsibility to communicate thoroughly going into those moments. Do not make people try and read your mind based on your fast-paced walking, lesser eye contact, and brief answers. If you know sh*t is about to get real, let the people closest to you know.

This is where the conversation about age and family dynamics come into play. On average the younger you are the less likely it is you have children. A lot of people in their 20s are now traveling more and potentially living in an entirely different state or country than their parents.

If this is the case you can lop the #1 priority pretty much off the top of your commitments. This falls directly into the advice many give about starting something when you are young. I agree with the caveat that your 20s is the perfect age to start something that fails. There is a blog post for a later time and place about this.

My advice today is to try and take inventory once in a while on your time and if you know the next couple weeks will be harder, communicate it with your circle. It will go a long way.

Eric Clapton - Let It Rain (1970)

What an attitude change overnight across all markets. Grumblings across the industry started last week in almost all my meetings that we are simply oversold. It does feels bottom’ish.

December CPI numbers come out Thursday, January 12 with consensus at 6.5%. Below are the last 2 months and forward looking numbers for this Thursday. It does pain my heart we are at the will of inflation and the fed to point the direction of market prices for stateless money and the open financial system, put simply though, this is where we are historically. It’s still early for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

I love the forecast chart below by Trading Economics. I’ve taken some liberty and added in what I think is possible. For now, velocity seems to be decreasing at a faster rate than modeled. Specifically around lending and the housing market. There are millions of millennials who were chomping at the bit to purchase a home when inventories were low and rates were favorable.

Below the inflation forecast graph you can see the 30-year mortgage rate. The increase of rates was so violent most of these families simply did not have time to adjust. They looked at rates, the lowest in history, and went shopping and in less than a year were completely priced out of the market. At a loan-to-value (LTV) of 80/20, meaning you put $100,000 down on your $500,000 home in January 2021 that home cost you $1,632/mo in principle and interest. Today, your P&I is $2,602. An extra $1,000 a month after taxes is another $20,000 earned in salary. Here about a lot of salaries bumps in the last 6 months?

I created this spreadsheet on Jan 18, 2021. The Fisher Equation is pretty simple. If money supply increases, while people spending more money, and more goods are being produced/sold, you increase prices and therefore inflation.

At the time, money supply was the highest ever, velocity coming out of COVID and having a major second wave was the lowest ever, quantity of goods was increasing (supply). It was a perfect setup to spur the economy. Unfortunately we drastically overheated as a small increase in velocity would now have a major effect on prices. Hence the volatility you’ve seen in fuel and your visits to the supermarket.

Today the major adjustment to that equation is the V, velocity of money. Demand for large ticket spending is falling faster than what is modeled as lending as all but dried up. Inflation is easing and I believe it’s easing quicker than forecasted.

—

You never really know until you begin.

I have journaled for a while. Talking to yourself for 12 years is kind of wild and I have wanted to write publicly for a very long time. Hey, there is no time like the present.

Who

My name is Joe Vezzani. I have journaled over the years about how the events in my life have shaped the way I think. Each of these entries has helped me work through disbelief, pain and guilt, anger, depression, reconstruction, acceptance, hope, and fulfillment. My goal is to bring these entries out as tools to help anyone who needs it.

What

This a journal. Sometimes it will be a stream of consciousness, sometimes it will be more thought out. It will always purely be me. Topics I will cover may include:

1. Introspection as a new dad and CEO of a start-up

2. Inspiration for anyone who took the leap to try and start something new

3. Culture relating to technology, financial markets, and sports

When

Consistent enough for the reader acknowledge dedication and maintain storyline.

Where

From a lean-to or on planes, trains, and automobiles. A new location is always a new perspective.

Why

If not now, when? I was always waiting for an inflection point. Waiting for the day my experience would hit a precipice where I felt comfortable with giving advice. What I have found as someone on a path of continuing education, their is never enough experience. There is only what you know and what you don’t know and being comfortable knowing you don’t know.

Most importantly, impacting one person to be better to themselves is enough.

How

Written by me and never ChatGPT, that I can promise.